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Agriculture is the mainstay of our national economy. It contributes 24% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), accounts for 60-70% of country’s exports and employs 47% of the national labor force. The foremost challenge to agriculture sector is the provision of livelihood and other basic needs of the growing population without irreversibly damaging the fragile ecosystem. Being open to vagaries of nature, this sector is highly vulnerable to climate change phenomena. There is a consensus among scholars that human activities have reached a level where these are adversely affecting global environment. The global change due to anthropogenic perturbations is happening at a much faster rate compared to natural pace. Changes occurring today can have adverse implications tomorrow on the key socio-economic sectors including agriculture.

The objective of Agriculture Section is to study the likely impacts of climate and technological change, both positive and negative, on agricultural production and to identify appropriate measures for coping with the negative impacts. This is being done, through developing and testing crop simulation models and following system analysis approach with a view to assist the national planners in developing and incorporating suitable strategies in the national development plans. The results and outcomes are published as papers in journals of repute,conference/workshops proceedings and as scholarly reports.

In pursuit of its objectives, the Agriculture Section employs different tools for assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The impact can be studied at various levels, such as on crop yields, on farm and village level outputs and income, on regional and national production and on global production and prices. Each level requires different set of research methods. These include Crop Simulation Models, Integrated System Models, Economic Models, Remote Sensing and GIS etc.

Activities of Agriculture Section

Preliminary impact assessment of global warming on crops under different environmental conditions through use of crop growth models (DSSAT, CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice, etc.)

Applying crop growth models for predicting crop yield and crop management strategies in combination with spatial information

Studying integrated food system in Gujrat district to understand interaction between food system and global environmental change. This will help enhance adaptive capacity of food system in the face of current and future change.

Studying weather information system in rural Punjab to bolster the capacities of farming communities to counteract the harshness of climate variability and climate change.