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Global Change Impact Studies Centre
Islamabad, Pakistan
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Pakistan's Climate Change Concerns and Vulnerability
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Simulation Models currently in use
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The current research activities of the Centre are grouped under three Sections, namely:

1) Climatology and Environment Section,
2) Water Resources and Glaciology Section,
3) Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Section.

Climatology and Environment Section:

  • Assessment of past climate changes in various parts of Pakistan using statistical analysis techniques;
  • Projection of future climate changes in Pakistan based on:
  • (a) Ensemble of projections using the outputs of various Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
    (b) Statistical and dynamical downscaling of GCM based projections using Regional Climate Models (RCMs).
  • Development of indicators and indices for extreme climate events in the South-Asia region; Development of methodological tools for projecting future frequency & intensity patterns of extreme events;
  • Development of seasonal, inter-annual and decadal climate predictability systems; Prediction of Summer Monsoon rains, in Pakistan.
  • Updating of GHG Inventory of Pakistan using latest IPCC guidelines.
  • Analysis of alternative Energy Sector Strategies for Pakistan in relation to GHG and other pollutant emissions using Pakistan's Integrated Energy Planning Model and IIASA's GAINS-Asia Model.
  • Assessment of time and space-varying meteorological conditions on the long range transport of airmass and aerosol varieties on regional level by employing trajectory and dispersion modeling. Development of synoptic climatology on regional level by assessing transport on monthly, seasonal as well as annual time scales.

Water Resources & Glaciology Section:

  • Quantitative assessment of past temporal changes in the dimensions of HKH glaciers using advanced Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS techniques;

  • Monitoring of snow cover and glacier behavior in the HKH region; using RS/GIS techniques;

  • Analysis of historical hydro-meteorological data to ascertain the past trends, and assessment of the impacts of projected climate change and land cover changes on water flows in the main rivers of Pakistan using different Watershed Simulation Models;

  • Study of the impacts of climate change, in particular of sea level rise, on the coastal areas of Pakistan;

  • Adaptation measures to cope with
  • (a) the flood and drought situations,
    (b) the intrusion of sea water in the coastal areas of Pakistan.

Agriculture Forestry and Land Use Section:

  • Assessment of the impacts of projected climate change on productivity of various agricultural crops in different climatic zones of the country using Crop Growth Simulation Models;

  • Study of climate change impacts on land degradation and deforestation;

  • Study of insect-pest infestation dynamics in the wake of climate change;

  • Food security in the wake of climate change and reduced availability of irrigation water;

  • Assessment of climate change impacts on Livestock;

  • Adaptation measures to counter negative impacts of climate change on Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry.
  • Updating of information on GHG emissions from Agriculture, Forestry, Land Use and Wastes sectors in Pakistan.


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